NFIB Small Business Optimism cratered to a decade low in June as recessionary warning flags continue to emerge. The most notable aspect of the report was that the Business Outlook for the Next 6 Months fell to a record low for the fourth straight month (see graph below). In reference to this shocking development, the NFIB made the following statement: “Declines in the net percent expecting better business conditions have always preceded downturns in economic activity. At a net -61%, the lowest in 48 years, it is strongly indicating bad times for the economy to come.”
As an investor, one must choose their own investment odds. This report is yet another piece of evidence confirming that recession risk is rising, and in the current high risk market environment, these are not odds we want to bet against.
Eli Petropoulos, CFA – Sr. Market Analyst