Market Insights

Keep up with InvesTech’s review of weekly economic news and data releases and how these may affect your investing. Visit weekly for new Market Insights.

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InvesTech Negative Leadership Composite Triggers Distribution

For the first time since the 2020 COVID-19 Crash, our Negative Leadership Composite (NLC) has started showing bearish Distribution.

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Manufacturers show strength despite persistent challenges

The ISM Manufacturing Index ticked higher to a reading of 61.1 in November, keeping it at a historically strong reading.

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Surging prices weigh on the minds of consumers heading into the holiday season

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed even further beyond the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% inflation target in October.

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Borrowing on Margin Soars as Speculation Re-engages

Margin debt surged to new highs in October in a clear indication that speculation remains alive and well in the stock market.

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Leading economic indicators keep on rolling – what does it mean for the equity market?

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) reached a record high for the seventh straight month in this morning’s release, suggesting that economic strength will continue into 2022.

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Homebuilder optimism regains its footing

After sliding for much of this year, NAHB Builder Confidence continues to rebound and remains above its pre-pandemic highs.

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Consumer Sentiment falls to the lowest level in a decade

November’s preliminary reading of Consumer Sentiment fell further below its pandemic lows due to intensifying inflation fears.

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Inflation accelerates and broadens at an alarming pace

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) -which excludes food and energy prices- soared to another 30-year high in October as pricing pressures continue to mount.

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Inflation insights from the corporate trenches…

As the inflation debate rages on, we explore what CEOs and corporate executives of Fortune 500 companies are seeing on the ground floor.

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A record high for the services sector, but not as strong as it appears…

The ISM Service Sector surged to the highest level in its 24-year history last month due to the combination of strong consumer demand and supply chain disruptions.

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A tug of war between manufacturing demand and supply chain challenges

The ISM Manufacturing Index ticked down by 0.3 points in October to remain near one of the highest readings of the past 50 years.

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Inflation puts the Fed further behind the eight-ball

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, climbed to 3.64% last month to remain at the highest level in over 30 years.

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Consumer Sentiment gets hit hard by inflation psychology

The University of Michigan’s measure of Consumer Sentiment declined in October as inflationary fears pushed consumers’ attitudes back below pandemic levels of a year ago.

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New home sales jump in spite of record price increases

New home sales of 800,000 in September was notably higher than economists’ expectations and was the largest month-over-month increase since July of 2020.

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Consumer Confidence stabilizes yet inflation expectations become even more extreme

Consumer Confidence rose modestly in October after having fallen for the four months prior, bolstered primarily by declining COVID-19 cases.

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Leading economic indicators rise, but at a much slower pace…

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased to another record high in September, yet last month’s growth of 0.2% missed economists’ expectations and was the second slowest reading since last year’s COVID-induced recession.

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Producers feel the pinch

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods climbed from 10.2% to 11.7% in September, the highest reading since November of 1980.

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Inflation just won’t quit

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, moved slightly higher to 4.0% on an annual basis in September to remain near a 30-year high.

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The service sector remains robust

The ISM Services Index exceeded economists’ expectations by ticking higher to a reading of 61.9 in September.

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The Fed has an inflation conundrum

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) –the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure– edged up slightly to 3.62% from 3.60% for the month prior.

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Confidence continues to tumble in September

Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board continued to worsen in September as fears over inflation and the COVID-19 Delta variant persist.

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Speculative Borrowing Re-engages

The latest margin debt reading showed that speculation regained momentum last month as it surged to yet another record high.

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The Leading Economic Index continues to advance

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) exceeded economists’ expectations by jumping +0.9% in August.

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Homebuilder confidence stabilizes… for now

NAHB Builder Confidence registered a warning flag last month after it fell sharply to a 13-month low, yet it managed to rebound by one point in September.

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Inflation stays high as sticky prices are poised to pick up the slack

The Consumer Price Index ticked down to 5.3% from 5.4% last month and remained at one of the highest readings of the past twenty years.

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Inflation continues to weigh on small business optimism

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by a meager 0.4 points in August (top graph) as small business owners continue to contend with both rising input costs and labor challenges.

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Is speculation starting to fade?

The speculative frenzy that was ignited by the trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus since the pandemic began may be starting to dissipate, according to our InvesTech Investor Psychology Barometer (IIPB). 

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Producer prices surge to record levels

The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to an all-time high of 8.3% in its most recent reading, showing that supply/demand imbalances are persisting.

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Manufacturing remains strong, but challenges remain…

The ISM Manufacturing Index moved higher to a reading of 59.9% in August to remain near one of the highest levels of the past two decades.

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Consumer confidence craters in August

Consumers became significantly more pessimistic in August due to a combination of persistent inflation pressures and fears over the Delta variant.

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The Fed’s preferred inflation measure still running hot

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose for the fifth straight month to 3.62% versus the prior month’s unrevised reading of 3.5%.

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Leading economic indicators show strength

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) from the Conference Board improved once again in July, taking the Index to another record high.

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Leading housing indicator raises a warning flag

NAHB Builder Confidence (top graph below) sank to a 13-month low in August after suffering its fourth largest drop of the past decade.

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Small businesses voice concern about the future

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index unexpectedly declined by -2.8 points to a reading of 99.7 as economic expectations retreated in July.

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Manufacturing remains strong but moderates

The ISM Manufacturing Index declined by -1.1% to 59.5% in July, yet it remains at one of the highest levels of the past 30 years.

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The Fed’s preferred inflation measure continues to rise

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) –the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve– climbed further beyond the central bank’s 2% inflation target to 3.5% last month.

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Consumer Confidence Steady Despite Inflation Concerns

Consumer attitudes were virtually unchanged in July...

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LEI continues to climb

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) from the Conference Board gained 0.7% last month on positive contributions from eight of its ten leading components.

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Margin debt stays the course

Margin debt climbed in June for the eighth straight month as investors continue to borrow on margin to buy stocks.

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Homebuilders remain optimistic

Homebuilders became slightly less optimistic this month according to the National Association of Home Builders, yet their confidence remains higher than at any point prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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COVID-19 recession declared shortest on record

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has officially announced that the pandemic-induced recession has ended.

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Small business optimism improves

Small businesses became more optimistic last month as the economic recovery continued to gain momentum.

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Inflation surges in June

The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, continued to surge in June.

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Services remains on solid ground

The ISM Services Index fell to a reading of 60.1% in June, still firmly in expansion territory and just 3.9% below its record high from the month before.

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Manufacturing remains red hot

The manufacturing sector stayed soundly in expansion territory in June, as the ISM Manufacturing Index registered a strong reading of 60.6.

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Consumer confidence rebounds, but…

Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board increased for the fifth consecutive month as pandemic woes continued to fade.

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Leading inflation indicator points higher

Inflation has emerged with a vengeance in recent months, and the FIBER Leading Inflation Index (LII) suggests that that pricing pressures are continuing to mount.

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Consumer optimism emerges, yet inflation lurks

Consumer optimism has been held down by the pandemic over the past year, but attitudes have started to improve as COVID-19 disruptions begin to fade.

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