Inflation just won’t quit

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, moved slightly higher to 4.0% on an annual basis in September to remain near a 30-year high.  The higher Core CPI reading was driven by much broader price increases, as the temporary price shocks from the reopening continued to normalize. 

Additionally, the Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG) from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York increased for the 15th straight month and eclipsed the 4.0% mark for the first time ever.  As shown in the chart below, the UIG has a reliable historical track record as a leading inflation gauge.  And with its readings continuing to climb higher, it is likely that inflation will not relent in the months ahead.