Weekly Hotline: May 1, 2026

The stock market continued to experience headline-driven volatility this week as FOMO (fear of missing out) pushed stocks higher even as InvesTech proprietary technical indicators, including the critical mega-cap Gorilla and speculative AI Indexes, fell behind.

MACROECONOMIC UPDATE

  • Consumer Confidence ticked up +0.6 points in April to 92.8, relatively in line with its level over the last year. The Present Situation component fell -0.3 points while Future Expectations rose +1.2 points. Overall, consumers became more concerned about business conditions, but views regarding the labor market improved.
  • The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was unchanged in April at 52.7% as the sector remained in expansion (>50%). However, the Prices component jumped to 84.6% –the highest level since April 2022– indicating rapidly rising price pressures, and the Employment component fell deeper into contraction (<50%).
  • Housing Starts jumped +10.8% in March, rebounding to near the highest level in the past few years. However, Building Permits, which tend to be more of a leading indicator, collapsed -10.8%, nearing the lowest level since 2020. This will make next month’s readings an important indicator for the housing market.
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index jumped in March as the Overall PCE Price Index rose from 2.8% to 3.5% year-over-year. Core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, also rose from 3.0% to 3.2%, moving even further above the Fed’s 2% target (see Market Insight).

TECHNICAL UPDATE

  • The InvesTech Gorilla Index and AI Index are on track to close flat for the week despite the S&P 500 climbing higher. The relative weakness in these mega-cap giants and speculative favorites is an important sign that the market remains on unsteady footing. If these indicators fall below their recent lows, we believe the broader market will follow.
  • The InvesTech Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer fell throughout the week as sustained high mortgage rates took their toll on the housing market. A break in this critical indicator below its recent lows would confirm trouble ahead for the housing sector.

INVESTECH MODEL FUND PORTFOLIO

There are no changes to the Model Fund Portfolio this week, which is comprised of 58% long positions, 5% in an inverse index ETF, 5% in an intermediate Treasury ETF, and 32% cash held in short-term Treasurys or a money market fund. This results in 53% net equity exposure.

The next Weekly Hotline update will be this Friday after 12:30 PM ET


Recent Market Insights


  • InvesTech Proprietary Indicator

    Gorilla Index

    Our InvesTech Gorilla Index tracks the mega-cap momentum stocks that the stock market has become increasingly dependent on for the past number of years.
  • InvesTech Proprietary Indicator

    Artificial Intelligence Index

    A technical breakdown of our AI index would indicate that the speculative bubble has begun to pop…
  • InvesTech Proprietary Indicator

    Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer

    Our Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer is a key indicator to watch for a warning that today’s housing boom may be coming to an ugly end.

Model Fund Portfolio

There are no changes to the Model Fund Portfolio this week.


Latest Issue of InvesTech Research

The next InvesTech Research newsletter will be published on the 3rd Friday of the month by 3:00 PM ET

InvesTech Issue Highlights: In this Issue

Latest Issue

InvesTech Newsletter

April 17, 2026 Vol. 2026 | Issue 04Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • Speculative Lemminglike Frenzy Reignites Volatility
  • The Fed’s Inflation Battle is Heating Back Up
  • Recession Warning Flags are Far from Dissipating
  • Don’t Lose Sight of Overarching Risks
Click Here to Download Issue
Past Issue ( 6 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

March 20, 2026 Vol. 2026 | Issue 03Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • Walking the Recession Tightrope
  • Riding a roller coaster of global conflict, resilient inflation… and investor nervousness
  • InvesTech’s “Big 3” proprietary technical indicators are breaking critical thresholds
Past Issue ( 10 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

February 20, 2026 Vol. 2026 | Issue 02Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • Double Bubble, Toil & Trouble
  • The Wealth Effect... When Bubbles Go Bust
  • The 2026 Comparison
  • Technical Breakdown – Warning Flags Wave
Past Issue ( 15 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

January 16, 2026 Vol. 2026 | Issue 01Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • A Look at the Year Ahead
  • The Challenges and the Opportunities ...and the Risk of a Black Swan Event
  • Fed Battle Continues – Cooling Employment
  • Fed Battle Continues – Sticky Inflation
  • Technical Weakness
  • The Opportunities
Past Issue ( 19 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

December 19, 2025 Vol. 2025 | Issue 12Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • Navigating a “Bubble Economy” to a Soft Landing?…don’t let Santa Claus fool you!
  • Technicals Stabilize, But Strength is Missing
  • “No Risk-Free Path” – The Fed Battle Continues
  • The “Resilient” Consumer May be a Mirage
  • Don’t Lose Sight
Past Issue ( 23 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

November 21, 2025 Vol. 2025 | Issue 11Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • The Unsettling and Unforgiving Path Into a Bear Market…
  • Fed Battle at the Forefront
  • Keeping a finger on the pulse: Alternative Economic Data
  • Consumers Hit by Significant Headwinds
  • Technical Alarm Bells
 
Past Issue ( 28 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

October 17, 2025 Vol. 2025 | Issue 10Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • A Tale of Two Bubbles
  • Is this really a bubble?
  • If this is a bubble, what would pop it?
  • What is the risk?
  • Vol. 2026Issue 04 April 17, 2026
  • Vol. 2026Issue 03 March 20, 2026
  • Vol. 2026Issue 02 February 20, 2026
  • Vol. 2026Issue 01 January 16, 2026
  • Vol. 2025Issue 12 December 19, 2025
  • Vol. 2025Issue 11 November 21, 2025
  • Vol. 2025Issue 10 October 17, 2025

Weekly Hotline: May 1, 2026

The stock market continued to experience headline-driven volatility this week as FOMO (fear of missing out) pushed stocks higher even as InvesTech proprietary technical indicators, including the critical mega-cap Gorilla and speculative AI Indexes, fell behind. MACROECONOMIC UPDATE TECHNICAL UPDATE INVESTECH MODEL FUND PORTFOLIO There are no changes to the Model Fund Portfolio this week, […]

Weekly Hotline: April 24, 2026

Despite significant fluctuations, the S&P 500 is on track to close the week essentially flat. At the same time, underlying fundamentals warn that further volatility is likely ahead, and consumers continue to raise warning flags. MACROECONOMIC UPDATE TECHNICAL UPDATE INVESTECH MODEL FUND PORTFOLIO There are no changes to the Model Fund Portfolio this week, which […]

Weekly Hotline: April 17, 2026

INVESTECH MODEL FUND PORTFOLIO Thursday April 16, 2026: We recommended the following change to our Model Fund Portfolio This year got off to a rocky start and as risks increased prior to the conflict in the Middle East, we stepped up the allocation to our bear market fund in February.  This position significantly helped reduce […]

Model Fund Portfolio Update: April 16, 2026

April 16, 2026: We recommend the following change to our Model Fund Portfolio This year got off to a rocky start and as risks increased prior to the conflict in the Middle East, we stepped up the allocation to our bear market fund in February.  This position significantly helped reduce volatility in the first quarter […]

Weekly Hotline: April 10, 2026

Markets rebounded this week as news of a ceasefire with Iran prompted a relief rally. Meanwhile, leading indicators showed that price pressures are increasing and the Fed’s Battle is heating back up. MACROECONOMIC UPDATE TECHNICAL UPDATE The ceasefire-induced rally has also caused key technical indicators to bounce, and we are carefully watching this tug-of-war in […]

Weekly Hotline: April 3, 2026

This week marked the end of a turbulent first quarter of 2026, and markets briefly rallied as investors navigated headline driven volatility. Key proprietary technical indicators, however, warn that the risk is far from over. MACROECONOMIC UPDATE TECHNICAL UPDATE INVESTECH MODEL FUND PORTFOLIO There are no changes to the Model Fund Portfolio this week, which […]