Leading housing indicator raises a warning flag

NAHB Builder Confidence (top graph below) sank to a 13-month low in August after suffering its fourth largest drop of the past decade.  The decline in Builder Confidence was driven primarily by a slowdown in the Traffic of Prospective Buyers (bottom graph below).  Long-term downturns in these NAHB surveys (red arrows) can historically precede recessions, making these leading housing surveys critical to monitor in the months ahead.