A leading inflation indicator points higher
Inflation has emerged with a vengeance in recent months, and the FIBER Leading Inflation Index (LII) suggests that that pricing pressures are continuing to mount. As shown in the graph below, the FIBER LII has historically led turning points in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by several months. While certain elements of today’s inflation will likely moderate in the months ahead, this historically reliable forecasting model indicates that inflation is likely to continue higher in the near term.
