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“To Infinity and Beyond!”
For more than two years, a number of historically valid recession warning indicators have proven irrefutably wrong – including the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), Consumer Sentiment, and even the Federal Reserve’s own Yield Spread Model. And when bad news gets worse the market rallies further on hopes of more Fed easing. However, if these tools aren’t wrong and just early, investors could be in for a dramatic surprise.
Major battles rage on in today’s market as excessive excesses fight for control, the Fed walks the tightrope of balancing their dual mandate, and the economy grapples with avoiding a recession. So, in this issue we dive deep into critical updates for all 3 of these battles and we reveal what could be the most important bear market indicator to watch.
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