February 25, 2021: We are initiating a 6% position in the SPDR MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. ETF (symbol: CWI).

This fund provides diversified exposure to the international equity market, excluding the U.S., and is an opportunistic way to invest in the post-pandemic economic recovery while addressing overvaluation and inflation risks.

Relative underperformance by international stocks over the past decade has led to a wide gap in valuation versus U.S. stocks. Valuations are ineffective timing tools, but they are a major determinant of long-term returns and represent an investor’s margin of safety.

International stocks may also help to combat the rising threat of inflation. First, highly aggressive monetary and fiscal policies threaten to undermine the dollar, which could result in inflation for U.S. consumers and businesses. Historically, international stocks have outperformed when the U.S. dollar is in decline. The second threat of inflation comes from the release of pent-up demand as economies reopen in response to falling COVID-19 caseloads. Companies may not be able to increase their production in time to meet this wave of new demand, which would put upward pressure on prices. CWI is weighted more heavily toward geographies and sectors that will benefit from this method of inflation.

The Model Fund Portfolio is now 80% invested with the remaining 20% held in short-term Treasurys or a money-market fund.