Model Fund Portfolio Update: December 9, 2025

December 9, 2025: We Recommend the following changes to our Model Fund Portfolio

Bearish Distribution in InvesTech’s Negative Leadership Composite has eased back to 0 following a rapid decline last month. This signals that imminent downside risk is decreasing.

As a result, we are adjusting and incrementally increasing the value-centric investments in the Portfolio as we continue to seek out areas for profits while avoiding the highest-risk segments of the market.

We recommend the following changes to our Model Fund Portfolio:

  • Decrease the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (symbol: NOBL) from 15% to 13%.  NOBL remains a strong component of the portfolio. However, a small trim in this holding allows us to allocate more towards the new TRMCX position which has a key focus on value stocks.
  • Initiate a 5% position in the T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Value Mutual Fund (symbol: TRMCX). [Note: Invesco S&P Pure Value ETF (symbol: RPV) is our preferred ETF alternative]. TRMCX seeks to provide long-term capital appreciation by investing in mid-sized companies that appear to be undervalued.  The fund has a strong track record going all the way back to its inception in 1996. This gives the Portfolio exposure to value investments while continuing to avoid the most expensive and speculative portions of the broader market.
    • Please note TRMCX will be paying its year-end distribution on December 12th which is a taxable event and will cause the price to drop by the distribution amount. We suggest this purchase should be made in taxable accounts after this distribution has taken place. 

The Portfolio remains defensively positioned to weather a potential storm ahead. We are maintaining our 5% inverse (bear) fund position to hedge any volatility and downside risk while this new position broadens our invested allocation and maintains a key focus on value.

Following these changes, the net invested equity allocation of the Portfolio is 53%. This is comprised of 58% long positions, 5% in an inverse index ETF, 5% in an intermediate Treasury ETF, and 32% cash held in short-term Treasurys or a money market fund.