The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by -1.0% in November, twice the decline expected by economists. Monthly declines of this magnitude last occurred in the pandemic-induced recession of 2020 and 2008 Financial Crisis. The LEI has now fallen for nine consecutive months, which has historically only happened in recessionary scenarios. With the LEI now -3.2% below its 18-month moving average (see graph), the odds appear overwhelming that the recession has already begun!
Eli Petropoulos, CFA – Sr. Market Analyst
