The Leading Economic Index (LEI) from the Conference Board fell by -0.3% in January, notably lower than economists’ expectations for a +0.3% increase. Negative contributions from manufacturing, employment, stocks prices, and the consumer confidence all played a part in the decline. While the LEI remains far above its 18-month moving average, continued weakness in the months ahead could quickly turn into a recessionary warning flag, especially as the Federal Reserve begins tightening policy.
