The Leading Economic Index (LEI) from the Conference Board gained 0.7% last month on positive contributions from eight of its ten leading components. As a result, the LEI has reached another new high, which bodes well for near-term economic growth. Typically, the LEI signals a heightened risk of recession when it crosses below its critical 18-month moving average (black arrows on graph). It is worth noting that growth in the LEI slowed in June as reopening effects begin to fade, but for now the economic recovery remains on track.
