Each year the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary benchmark revisions to nonfarm payrolls for the 12 months ending in March of the current year. The preliminary benchmark revision for March 2025 came out this morning showing a shocking -911,000 fewer jobs were added than previously reported. This means that the job market has been far weaker than realized for quite some time – a concerning development for the U.S. economy.
This further solidifies the Fed’s upcoming rate cut in mid-September and increases the likelihood of more cuts in the coming months as they fight to uphold the maximum employment side of their dual mandate.
The magnitude of revisions is also a warning flag. With data going back to 1979, this is the largest downward adjustment on record. The only other downward revision that comes close in size was in 2009, in the depths of the Great Financial Crisis. As shown in the graph above, significant downward revisions typically occur in recessions as the labor market is deteriorating quicker than statistical models imply.
The final revision will be released in February 2026. However, this preliminary release tells us that the U.S. economy is on very unsteady footing and an objective, safety-first strategy is more important than ever.