The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) improved by 0.8% in the final reading of 2021, with only one of its ten components contributing negatively. Even so, the Conference Board qualified the positive report by stating: “For the first quarter, headwinds from the Omicron variant, labor shortages, and inflationary pressures—as well as the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate hikes—may moderate economic growth.” The LEI is not giving a recessionary signal at the moment, but as noted by the Conference Board, there are many factors that are making the economy more vulnerable to a slowdown in the months ahead.
