Weekly Hotline: October 24, 2025

INVESTECH MODEL FUND PORTFOLIO CHANGE

As we discussed in last week’s Market Letter, Van Eck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (Symbol: GDX) grew its share in the Model Fund Portfolio to 7% following a year of strong performance. This week, gold showed signs of volatility, so it is prudent to take some profits off the table. We recommend you take at least 2% of the GDX position to lock in profits.

  • Decrease the Van Eck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (Symbol: GDX) from 7% to 5%. We are taking advantage of the opportunity to secure gains while still maintaining a position in this defensive hedge.

The Model Fund Portfolio is now 55% invested in quality equity ETFs, 5% in an intermediate Treasury ETF, and 40% cash. The cash portion of the Portfolio (40%) is held in short-term Treasurys or a money market fund to provide an attractive yield and defensive buffer.   

MACROECONOMIC UPDATE

  • Existing Home Sales ticked up by 1.5% in September while inventory also increased 1.3% and 14% year-over-year. Despite this slight increase in sales, the median time on the market for properties increased from 31 days to 33 days. This is a sign that even with slightly lower mortgage rates the housing market is still unable to gain momentum.
  • Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 1.5 points to 53.6 as consumers’ evaluations of the present and their expectations for the future slipped. This is one of the lowest readings on record, indicating that consumers continue to be pessimistic about their personal financial situations.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in cooler than expected, rising 3% year-over-year, up from 2.9%. The Core CPI rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, also came in at 3% year-over-year in a slight decrease from 3.1% last month. Read our latest Market Insight for more on this key release.

TECHNICAL UPDATE

  • Our Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer rose slightly this week but remains dangerously close to its first critical support level. The Barometer is also still more than -20% below its peak from over a year ago, signaling that the slowdown in the housing market is likely far from over.
  • Margin Debt increased by 6.3% in its latest release, rocketing up to $1.13 trillion. The rise lifted the Margin Debt Carry Load as a % of GDP, which takes borrowing costs into account, up to a new all-time high as speculation continues to run rampant. This vital warning reminds us that this is NOT a low risk investing environment. See our updated Market Insight for more information on this indicator.

The next Weekly Hotline update will be next Friday after 12:30 PM ET


Recent Market Insights


  • InvesTech Proprietary Indicator

    Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer

    Our Housing [Bubble] Bellwether Barometer is a key indicator to watch for a warning that today’s housing boom may be coming to an ugly end.
  • Margin Debt

    Margin debt as a percent of nominal GDP is one of the most useful tools for monitoring leverage and excesses in the stock market. 

Model Fund Portfolio

There are changes to the Model Fund Portfolio this week.


Latest Issue of InvesTech Research

The next InvesTech Research newsletter will be published on the 3rd Friday of the month by 3:00 PM ET

InvesTech Issue Highlights: In this Issue

Latest Issue

InvesTech Newsletter

October 17, 2025 Vol. 2025 | Issue 10Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • A Tale of Two Bubbles
  • Is this really a bubble?
  • If this is a bubble, what would pop it?
  • What is the risk?
Click Here to Download Issue
Past Issue ( 5 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

September 19, 2025 Vol. 2025 | Issue 09Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • “To Infinity and Beyond!” When even bad news is “seemingly” good news…
  • Critical Updates as the Battles Rage On
  • The Fed’s Battle – Still Walking the Tightrope
  • The Battle for the Economy
Past Issue ( 10 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

August 15, 2025 Vol. 2025 | Issue 08Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • The Perfect Trifecta of Bear Market Risks
  • Speculative Frenzy Reigniting
  • The Fed Showdown
  • Critical Areas to Watch for the Next 60 Days
  • It’s Not As If Wall Street Hasn’t Been Warned…
Past Issue ( 14 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

July 18, 2025 Vol. 2025 | Issue 07Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • Tip Toe Through a Minefield
  • The Good…
  • The Bad (Questionable)…
  • The Ugly...
Past Issue ( 18 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

June 20, 2025 Vol. 2025 | Issue 06Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • Perfectly Positioned for Resilience – And why a bear market and recession are becoming increasingly likely…
  • The Fed Showdown
  • Inflation – It’s not over yet
  • Pervasive Crumbling in the Housing Foundation
  • Positioned for Success – Cutting a More Stable Path to Profits
 
Past Issue ( 23 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

May 16, 2025 Vol. 2025 | Issue 05Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • At a Critical Juncture – Is that all there is?
  • What has improved!
  • The Elephant in The Room – Tariffs
  • Weak, but holding...
  • What has not improved!
Past Issue ( 27 weeks ago)

InvesTech Newsletter

April 18, 2025 Vol. 2025 | Issue 04Read Issue (PDF)

In this Issue:

  • Tracking the Path of the Bear... the Unwinding Begins
  • A Trifecta of Bear Market Risks
  • Update: The Critical Warnings from the Critical 4
  • What to Expect if Wall Street is in a Bear Market
  • Discipline & Resilience - The Secret to Risk Management
  • Vol. 2025Issue 10 October 17, 2025
  • Vol. 2025Issue 09 September 19, 2025
  • Vol. 2025Issue 08 August 15, 2025
  • Vol. 2025Issue 07 July 18, 2025
  • Vol. 2025Issue 06 June 20, 2025
  • Vol. 2025Issue 05 May 16, 2025
  • Vol. 2025Issue 04 April 18, 2025

Weekly Hotline: October 24, 2025

INVESTECH MODEL FUND PORTFOLIO CHANGE As we discussed in last week’s Market Letter, Van Eck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (Symbol: GDX) grew its share in the Model Fund Portfolio to 7% following a year of strong performance. This week, gold showed signs of volatility, so it is prudent to take some profits off the table. […]

Weekly Hotline: October 17, 2025

INVESTECH MODEL FUND PORTFOLIO ADJUSTMENT As you’ll see in this month’s issue published later today, we are making the following adjustments to our Model Fund Portfolio to more closely reflect the allocation following year-to-date relative gains: It should be noted that gold has been our strongest performer this year, with the Van Eck Vectors Gold […]

Weekly Hotline: October 10, 2025

Today’s selling pressure has the S&P 500 Index set to close lower in what was a very quiet week for macroeconomic data. There was significant action BEHIND the scenes, however, as gold skyrocketed above $4,000 per ounce (taking our Gold ETF position GDX to a 122% year-to-date gain) <see Market Insight>  …and our Housing Bubble […]

Weekly Hotline: October 3, 2025

Investor speculation and exuberance surrounding AI deals helped markets bounce back this week, despite growing uncertainty and the U.S. government shutdown. MACROECONOMIC UPDATE TECHNICAL UPDATE InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio The Model Fund Portfolio is 57% invested in quality equity ETFs, 5% in an intermediate Treasury ETF, and 38% cash. The cash portion of the Portfolio […]

Weekly Hotline: September 26, 2025

Markets were subdued this week as the outlook for further rate cuts from the Fed grew increasingly uncertain. MACROECONOMIC UPDATE TECHNICAL UPDATE InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio The Model Fund Portfolio is 57% invested in quality equity ETFs, 5% in an intermediate Treasury ETF, and 38% cash. The cash portion of the Portfolio (38%) is held […]

Weekly Hotline: September 19, 2025

Markets rallied on rate cut excitement despite Fed Chairman Powell’s warning that “there is no risk-free path.” MACROECONOMIC UPDATE TECHNICAL UPDATE InvesTech Model Fund Portfolio The Model Fund Portfolio is 57% invested in quality equity ETFs, 5% in an intermediate Treasury ETF, and 38% cash. The cash portion of the Portfolio (38%) is held in […]