Weekly Hotline: October 9, 2026
SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT
InvesTech Research had the opportunity to speak at the 2026 Glacier Summit Wealth Conference and connect with subscribers and investors from across the country. We recorded both presentations by InvesTech and are posting them to our website as they become available.
Both the videos, The Most Valuable Lessons from Over 100 Years of Wall Street History and The Critical Technical Indicators to Watch Today, are now available to watch!
Market divergences grew larger this week as volatility continued.
MACROECONOMIC UPDATE
- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index ticked down from 55.4% to 54.9% as high costs continue to weigh on businesses.
- Consumer Sentiment dropped from 48.1 to 46.3 as assessments of Current Conditions fell to the lowest level on record, and there were even more cracks under the hood (see Market Insight).
TECHNICAL UPDATE
- Bearish Distribution in the InvesTech Negative Leadership Composite (NLC) continues to signal deteriorating leadership. The longer Distribution remains below -100, the higher the probability of a significant correction or bear market.
- The InvesTech A/D Divergence Index fell further this week. Other than 1 week during COVID, we’re seeing the worst breadth divergence over the past two months than we have seen since the Tech Bubble top in 2000. This is an important warning that market fundamentals are breaking down.
INVESTECH MODEL FUND PORTFOLIO
There are no changes to the Model Fund Portfolio this week, which remains defensive and is comprised of 62.5% long positions, 8% in an inverse index ETF, 5% in an intermediate Treasury ETF, and 24.5% cash held in short-term Treasurys or a money market fund. This results in 54.5% net equity exposure.
