Stay up to date with the latest economic trends by following us here! This new, free section tracks important economic indicators you should be watching.
To see when upcoming releases are scheduled, select the following Economic Trends Calendar. Release dates represent when data is available from their respective sources. Check back here for the latest updates!
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Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)
Introduced in 2017 by the New York Federal Reserve with data going back to 1995, the Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG) was meant to complement other measures of inflation like CPI and PCE. UIG differs in the way it’s calculated – it derives trend inflation from a large dataset that uses more than just price variables […]
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New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family homes for the month of February came in at 640,000, up from a downwardly revised 633,000 for January but worse than anticipated. Despite the minor overall monthly increase, the regional breakdown highlights that strength in New Home Sales was far from universal.
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Existing Home Sales
This morning’s Existing Home Sales report for February came in at 4.58 million, up 14.5% from January and better than consensus. However, Existing Home Sales are down 22.6% year-over-year, which shows the 2022 housing spike is starting to come back to earth.
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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The March Preliminary reading for the Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 63.4, down from the February final reading and its first decline in four months.
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Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
The latest LEI for February came in at 110, down 0.3% from January’s figure and its eleventh consecutive decline. This points to continuing recession risk, and it’s worth noting that the impacts of recent bank turmoil are not captured in this decline.
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Housing Starts and Building Permits
The latest report for Housing Starts for February came in at 1.450 million, 8.8% above the revised January reading and much better than forecast. Building Permits for February were at 1.524 million, 13.8% above the revised January figure and also better than forecast.
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Producer Price Index (PPI)
The latest Headline PPI FD for February came in at -0.1% month-over-month (MoM) and was up 4.6% year-over-year (YoY), both lower than consensus and a decline from January’s figures. Core PPI FD, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, increased 0.2% last month and 4.4% YoY. The declines in Headline PPI FD were led by prices for final demand goods, which fell 0.2% MoM.
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NAHB Housing Market Index/Builder Confidence
The latest HMI for March came in at 44, up two points from February and better than forecasted. While still in contraction (< 50), this is an improvement from last month, and builders are cautiously optimistic despite the lack of inventory shifting from existing to new homes. There is also significant uncertainty surrounding the near future. Here’s an excerpt from NAHB’s latest blog post:
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
This morning’s year-over-year Headline CPI for February came in at 6.0% and Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 5.5%. Both figures were in-line with the consensus and a decrease from the previous month’s YoY numbers.
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
The latest Small Business Optimism Index for February 2023 came in at 90.9, a slight increase from the January figure, but still well below its 49-year average. Many small business owners are struggling to fill open positions and fewer owners are planning to create new jobs in the next few months. Here’s an excerpt from the latest report:
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Monthly Employment Report
This morning’s release for February employment surprised forecasts once again with 311K new jobs, and January’s shockingly strong figure was revised down slightly to 504k . However, counter to the upside surprise in new job figures, the unemployment rate , edged up to 3.6% higher than the expected forecast of 3.4%.
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Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS)
This morning’s JOLTS report for January decreased to 10.8 million job openings, a decline of 6.5% from the revised December figure. The largest decreases in job openings were in construction, accommodation, food services (hospitality), and finance and insurance.
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ISM Services
The latest ISM Services Index for February came in at 55.1%, better than expected, but down from January by 0.1 percentage point, which indicates slower growth and is below its 12-month average.
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ISM Manufacturing
In the February report released this morning, the index came in at 47.7%, up fractionally from its January reading and worse than consensus. This is its fourth consecutive reading in contraction territory (< 50.0) and at its lowest levels since the 2020 pandemic recession.
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S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller House Price Index
The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December saw a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 5.8%, down from a 7.6% YoY increase in November (all non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]). On a month-over-month basis, the national index was down 0.8% from November, also NSA. After adjusting for seasonality, the national index was down 0.3% from November.
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ISM Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index)
This month’s Chicago PMI came in at 43.6 for February, down 0.7 from the January figure and its lowest reading since November 2022. This is its sixth month of contraction (below 50.0) and all but two sectors surveyed were in contraction territory in February.
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Conference Board Consumer Confidence
This morning’s Consumer Confidence Index came in at 102.9, worse than forecast and down from a revised 106.0 in January. Consumers are starting to pull back on spending and may be wary of a recession this year. The Expectations Index fell in February and has been well below what the CB deems “recession levels” for 11 of the last 12 months.
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Pending Home Sales Index
The latest Pending Home Sales Index for January came in at 82.5, which was an 8.1% increase from December and better than forecast. Despite this monthly increase, Pending Home Sales dropped in all regions compared to a year ago.
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Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)
The latest figure for January Headline PCE came in at 5.4% YoY which was higher than December’s 5.3% and above forecasts. Core PCE for January was at 4.7%, also above the December figure and higher than expected.
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Consumer Credit
The latest consumer credit for December increased 7.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from December 2021 with revolving debt increasing 5.6% and non-revolving up 14.8%.