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The latest ISM Services Index for May came in at 50.3%, worse than expected and a 1.6 percentage point decrease from the April reading of 51.2.
Monthly Employment Report
This morning’s release for May employment added 339K new jobs, however the unemployment rate ticked up from 3.4% to 3.7%.
This morning’s ISM Manufacturing PMI for May came in at 46.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from its April reading and worse than consensus. This is its seventh consecutive reading in contraction territory (< 50.0) for manufacturing, indicating a faster rate of contraction.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS)
This morning’s JOLTS report for April reported 10.1 million job openings, up from 9.745 million in March and better than forecast after three consecutive months of declines.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller House Price Index
The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for March saw a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 0.7%, down from a 2.1% YoY increase in February.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
This morning’s Consumer Confidence Index for May came in at 102.3, better than forecast but down from an upwardly revised 103.7.0 in April.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The May Final reading for the Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 59.2, down 7.0 % from the April Final reading, but better than consensus.
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)
The latest figure for April Headline PCE came in at 4.4% year-over-year (YoY), which was higher than March’s figure of 4.2% and worse than expected.
Pending Home Sales Index
The latest Pending Home Sales Index for April came in at 78.9, which was unchanged from the March figure and worse than forecast.
New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family homes for the month of April came in at 683,000, up from a downwardly revised 656,000 for March and better than expected.
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
The Conference Board is forecasting an economic contraction this quarter with a mild recession by mid-year.
Existing Home Sales
This morning’s Existing Home Sales report for April came in at 4.28 million, down 3.4% from March and slightly worse than forecast.
Housing Starts and Building Permits
The latest report for Housing Starts for April came in at 1.401 million, 2.2% above the revised March reading, and in-line with forecast. Building Permits for April were at 1.416 million, 1.5% below the March figure and worse than forecast.
NAHB Housing Market Index/Builder Confidence
The latest HMI for May came in at 50, up five points from the April reading and better than forecast. This is the index’s fifth consecutive monthly increase and its first time reaching 50 since July 2022. The primary increase in builder confidence stems from the continuing low inventory of existing homes, though they remain “cautiously optimistic”.
Producer Price Index (PPI)
The latest Headline PPI FD for April came in at 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and was up 2.3% year-over-year (YoY).
Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)
The latest UIG “full set” for April came in at 4.0%, down 0.3 from the March figure. The “prices only” measure for March came in at 3.4%, also down from March.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
This morning’s year-over-year Headline CPI for April came in at 4.9%, fractionally lower than consensus, though its smallest year-over-year (YoY) increase since the period ending April 2021.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
The latest Small Business Optimism Index for April fell to 89.0, a decrease of 1.1 from the March figure and its 16th consecutive month below the survey’s 49-year average of 98.0.
ISM Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index)
This month’s Chicago PMI came in at 48.6 for April, up from its March reading and much better than expected, though its eighth consecutive contractionary month (below 50.0).
Today’s consumer credit report increased by 3.8% in February on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, down from 4.9% in the month prior. According to the report, revolving credit growth of 5.0% was the slowest in nearly two years while nonrevolving credit growth ticked up to 3.4%.